Three non-Miami Heat storylines to watch for during the NBA draft lottery

A general overall view of the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery on May 20, 2014 at the ABC News’ ‘Good Morning America’ Times Square Studio in New York City. (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

MIAMI — The Heat’s situation in Tuesday night’s draft lottery is simple.

As the only team without a losing record in the lottery, the Heat are expected to end up with the 14th overall pick. But there is a small, small chance Miami could end up with a top-three pick.

The Heat enter the draft lottery with a 98.2 percent chance of having the 14th overall pick and a 1.8 percent chance of moving into the top three (worst among the lottery teams), including a 0.5 percent chance of winning the lottery, 0.6 percent chance of getting the second pick and 0.7 percent chance of securing the third pick.

There are only four possible outcomes for Miami — the 14th overall pick, third overall pick, second overall pick, or first overall pick.

But there are some non-Heat storylines surrounding the draft lottery. Here are three things to look for …

1. The Luck of the Celtics: A day after the Celtics’ Game 7 victory to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston can land the top pick in the 2017 draft. The Celtics own the rights to swap first-round picks with the Nets, and they will exercise those rights. Brooklyn finished the regular season with the NBA’s worst record, giving them a 25 percent chance for the No. 1 overall pick and a 64.3 percent chance at a top-three pick. And this selection will belong to the Celtics. What a few days this can turn out to be for Boston.

2. Drama in LA: There’s a chance the Lakers could lose their first-round pick in the lottery. In order to keep its pick, Los Angeles must land a top-three selection. Otherwise, the Lakers’ pick will go to the 76ers. The Lakers, which finished with the NBA’s third-worst record, have a 15.6 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 47 percent chance at a top-three pick. That means there’s a 53 percent chance that Los Angeles will lose its first-round pick to Philadelphia.

3. Overcoming the odds: It doesn’t happen often, but teams have overcome the odds to land a top pick. Unfortunately for the Heat, the No. 14 seed in the lottery has never moved up since the lottery was expanded to 14 teams in 2005. But the team with the ninth-best chance to win the lottery has had some luck in the past and moved up to take the top pick — the Bulls in 2008 and the Cavaliers in 2014. The Mavericks are this year’s No. 9 seed in the lottery. Will they get lucky?

[Mailbag: Could the Heat trade their draft pick no matter where it falls?]

[Miami Heat: 5 questions you’re probably asking yourself (with answers) about the NBA draft lottery]

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